On April 21 local time, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the final ruling rate for its anti-dumping duties (AD) and anti-subsidy duties (CVD) investigations on crystal photovoltaic cells from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam (whether assembled into components or not).

According to media disclosure, the anti-dumping duty on solar products in the four Southeast Asian countries is as high as 271.28%, depending on the company and the country. The countervailing tax is between 14.64% and 3403.96%.

Mao Tingting, senior photovoltaic analyst at SMM (Shanghai Nonferrous Network), told the reporter of "Daily Economic News": "According to SMM, since the United States conducted a double-anti-anti-spectrum investigation into Southeast Asia, the operating rate of Chinese companies in Southeast Asia has been affected to a certain extent, accelerating the transfer of production capacity to Indonesia, Laos and the Middle East."

Lu Jinbiao, consulting expert of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and deputy director of the Expert Committee of the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, told the Daily Economic News reporter: "(This) will push up the price of modules in the United States. (The United States) can have nearly half of the supply capacity, but the cost of integrated products is close to 2 yuan/watt. The cost of modules produced in Southeast Asia is 20% to 30% higher than that in mainland China, and various tariffs can still be exported to the United States in 60% to 80% of the regions."

China's leading product cost control

According to an article published by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association in December 2024, it established a cost model based on extensive research. According to estimates, in December 2024, the cost of silicon material (excluding depreciation) was 34.368 yuan/kg; the cost of silicon wafer (excluding depreciation) was 0.124 yuan/watt; the cost of battery (excluding depreciation) was 0.264 yuan/watt; the cost of integrated components (excluding depreciation) was 0.605 yuan/watt. The cost of integrated components (including taxes, minimum necessary expenses) is RMB 0.692 per watt.

Calculated at 0.692 yuan/watt, the domestic integrated module cost is less than 40% of the US photovoltaic module cost. Even if the cost of components in Southeast Asia is higher than that in China, it is far lower than the cost of integrated components in the United States.

Trina Solar staff responded to the reporter of the Daily Economic News: "The short-term impact of (tax rate adjustment) is definitely there. The supply chain needs to be reconstructed. Some production capacity that is not in the anti-double countries will have advantages, such as Indonesia and Laos. Theoretically, the domestic component prices in the United States should rise, but there is no accurate judgment yet."

After the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" in the United States were disclosed, InfoLink issued an article on April 10 that, based on the tax rate alone, photovoltaic cells and modules imported from Turkey, Indonesia and India have the most theoretical advantages, and their imports to the United States are still cost-effective. However, in fact, the supply to the United States still needs to take into account the actual battery production capacity of various countries. For example, India and Turkey are relatively scarce due to local battery production capacity, and are even insufficient to supply local modules.

So, can the U.S. local production capacity support its local demand? Trina Solar staff told the Daily Economic News reporter: "In terms of local production capacity in the United States, components can meet about 50% of the demand, while batteries can only meet 20% to 30% of the demand."

According to InfoLink, for the US photovoltaic market, insufficient battery production capacity is a key issue at present. In the first quarter of 2025, the US module production capacity reached 50.5GW (GW), but the local battery production capacity was only 2.3GW. After excluding the thin-film module production capacity, the United States still has a battery capacity gap of about 37GW.

Therefore, InfoLink believes that it is expected that the United States still needs to import Indonesian and Lao products, but assuming that Indonesia and Laos cannot fully support order demand, it is speculated that some may have to import from India or Malaysia with double tax rates. Overall, the rise in tax rates will inevitably push up the cost of US photovoltaic projects, and supply chain prices may also need to be adjusted to cope with tariff pressure.

Photovoltaic manufacturing is difficult to return to the United States

Will the United States impose anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on four Southeast Asian countries this time help the photovoltaic manufacturing industry return to the United States?

CITIC Securities Research Report believes that in the atmosphere of capricious domestic and foreign policies and chaotic demand expectations, the progress of the construction of domestic photovoltaic capacity in the United States is slower than expected. As of January 2025, its local production capacity of silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries, and crystalline silicon modules was about 21GW, 0, 2GW and 35GW respectively, and the supply chain supporting shortcomings were obvious.

It can be seen that the United States has particularly lagging behind in the field of silicon wafers and battery cells. So, will the US tariff policy help photovoltaic manufacturing companies build factories in the United States?

In fact, the cost of building a factory in the United States is also relatively high. Mao Tingting said: "The current battery production cost in the United States is about 2 to 3 times that of China. When the so-called 'reciprocal tariffs' are implemented, the supply chain cost will continue to increase, and the local photovoltaic power plant development benefits will be greatly challenged. (The tariff increase behavior) Will it promote the return of the manufacturing industry or inhibit the vitality of the development of the local photovoltaic market in the United States?"

The cost of building a factory in the United States is not only higher than that in China, but also significantly higher than in the Middle East. According to the announcement of Junda Co., Ltd. in November 2024, it plans to invest in the construction of an annual production capacity of 5GW high-efficiency N-type battery in Oman, with an investment scale of US$280 million. According to this calculation, the construction cost of 1GW photovoltaic cell production capacity is about US$56 million.

According to the announcement of Artes in October 2023, it plans to build an annual production of 5GW high-efficiency N-type battery cell project in the United States, with a total investment of approximately US$839 million. According to this calculation, the cost of building battery cell production capacity in the United States is about three times that in Oman.

Perhaps because of this, CITIC Securities expects that the United States' dependence on the import of the photovoltaic supply chain will be transferred from the component parts to silicon wafers, batteries and upper and middle stream auxiliary materials, and the "reflow" process of photovoltaic manufacturing is full of uncertainty. At the same time, due to the high dependence on imports of the United States' weak photovoltaic supply chain, high tariffs may further push up its already high manufacturing costs and increase the risks of local production capacity operation. If the high tariff policy continues, it may lead to the US photovoltaic industry falling into a recession spiral of "high cost-low demand-shrinking investment".

Although the US government encourages local manufacturing, the current production capacity of domestic silicon wafers, battery cells and modules in the United States is not enough to support market demand. If high tariffs lead to price increases, it may lead to weak growth in the US photovoltaic industry.

Meanwhile, emerging markets are on the rise. According to InfoLink, the Middle East and India markets are growing rapidly. In 2025, the annual growth rate of photovoltaic demand in the two regions exceeds 30% to 50%. In addition, Southeast Asia and Africa markets continue to develop, and with the increase in investment in green energy, local photovoltaic and energy storage demand continues to rise.

Therefore, InfoLink believes that the rise of India, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and other emerging markets will offset the impact of the slowdown in demand caused by policy uncertainty in the US market in the short term, continue to provide momentum for global energy transformation, and ensure long-term growth of the photovoltaic and energy storage industries.

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