Since US President Trump came to power, the traditional relationship between the United States and Europe has been greatly impacted. The US Defense News said on the 12th that as NATO's top military official, Italian Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chairman of the NATO Military Commission and Italian Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, warned that although there is no sign that the United States will withdraw its troops that promise to participate in NATO's defense plans and divert them to the Indo-Pacific region, "NATO must be prepared to deal with the situation where the United States diverts its attention from Europe."

"NATO needs to plan ahead"

Dragone took office in January this year and recently visited Washington to meet with other NATO leaders in a press conference that NATO needs to be prepared for the transfer of U.S. military strategy, "The key issue is to plan ahead, which will give NATO the ability to readjust and rebalance."

The US M1A2 tank unit participated in the large-scale joint exercise of the "European Defender-2022" in Poland. (Photo source: US Army website)

The root cause of Dragone's remarks came from a US defense strategy report exposed in March this year, which proposed that the United States should move its troops in Europe closer to Asia, forcing European countries to fill the gap. Dragone said he has not confirmed whether the Pentagon is implementing these plans, but "European countries can eventually fill the gap in combat power left by the withdrawal of U.S. troops in Europe - including air defense systems, electronic warfare capabilities, strategic air transport and drones."

As for why NATO needs to strengthen its military capabilities, Dragone said Russia is seeking to restore its military power before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022. As soon as possible, Russia may achieve this goal within three years, "a more realistic timetable may be 5-7 years."

However, wanting European countries to be able to fill the gap in combat power after the US military withdraws means that Europe needs to continue to increase its defense investment. Defense News mentioned that in order to ensure that the 2025 NATO summit held in The Hague, Netherlands in late June can reach an agreement on new military expenditure standards, NATO Secretary-General Rutt has sent a letter to all NATO member states, suggesting that all countries meet the requirements of US President Trump within 7 years and increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.

He divided 5% into two parts, of which 3.5% were "hard defense expenditures" and the other 1.5% were "defense expenditures", including the expenses for strengthening cybersecurity and improving infrastructure. According to reports, since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, NATO countries have increased their defense spending, and now 22 of the 32 member states have reached the "minimum military spending standard" (accounting for 2% of GDP). But Trump has repeatedly criticized Europe for its low contribution to NATO's defense, requiring countries to spend 5% of GDP.

Dragone confirmed that the relevant military expenditure share is under discussion, but no more details are provided on the implementation timetable or the purpose of the new funds. "I think NATO should be more flexible and try to be realistic." The report specifically mentioned that Dragone's motherland, Italy, is one of the 10 "under-standard" NATO member states, and Italy's defense expenditure accounts for 1.49% of GDP in 2024.

Rumors continue to be heard from the United States to withdraw troops from Europe

Defense News acknowledges that European countries' concerns about "the United States withdraws from NATO" are not without basis. The British Daily Telegraph broke the news in March that Trump accused Europe of "promoting war" on the Russian-Ukrainian issue, considering withdrawing about 35,000 US troops from Germany, and intending to re-deploy some US troops to Hungary. The uncertainty of the US military in Europe has caused tensions in Germany and even Europe. German "Berlin Daily" said that if 35,000 US troops are indeed withdrawn, it will be almost the entire ground troops of the US military stationed in Germany.

NBC reported in April that the Biden administration of the United States deployed 20,000 US troops in Eastern Europe in 2022 to strengthen the defense capabilities of countries bordering Ukraine after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The Pentagon is now planning to remove about 10,000 of them. Dragone previously said in an interview that although the United States will not withdraw from NATO, "due to the US' commitment in the Pacific region, withdrawing some troops from 100,000 US troops stationed in Europe may be put on the agenda."

The U.S. Defense Strategy Report, which made Europe feel collectively anxious, quoted a large number of core views from the Heritage Foundation, the American think tank: "The United States has limited resources. If it wants to successfully defend the U.S. mainland and deter China, it must withdraw its troops from other theaters. The United States' allies and partners must bear the primary responsibility for their own defense."

The Washington Post said that according to the exposed US defense strategy document, the U.S. military planning structure, including how the Pentagon will form and provide resources for the armed forces to deal with future threats, and only conflicts with Beijing will be considered when formulating contingency plans for the war of great powers, and "threats from Moscow will be mainly dealt with by European allies."

And “bearing the limitations of personnel and resources”, the Pentagon will put pressure on allies in Europe, the Middle East and East Asia to increase their defense spending “to assume most of the deterrent effect against countries such as Russia and Iran.” This is completely different from the previous US government's approach. The report mentioned that the Biden administration's "2022 Defense Strategy" emphasizes "joint confrontation with Russia" and says that "mutually beneficial alliances and allies are our greatest global strategic advantage."

It's not easy for Europe to fill the gap

Although Dragone called on European countries to make plans for the withdrawal of US troops from Europe, the Washington Post believes that if the United States reduces its troops in Europe, NATO European countries will need at least 5-10 years to fill the gap in combat power, and it is far from simply increasing military spending.

Bloomberg said that within NATO, European countries are highly dependent on the United States for communications, intelligence, logistics, and strategic military leadership and firepower. Currently, the European Allied Command is NATO's military command organization and is responsible for the organization and command of the military operations of NATO Allied Forces. As usual, the supreme commander of the European Allied Forces is the commander of the United States European Command. NATO's military command structure itself is also mainly based on the Pentagon.

At the same time, after the end of the Cold War, Europe disarmament on a large scale, and now European countries lack sufficient troops, weapons and ammunition. Bloomberg assessed that in extreme cases, without the support of the United States, Europe's air-to-air missile inventory could soon dry up. Ammunition may be exhausted within a few days, and air defense systems will not be able to provide enough cover for ground operations. In fact, more than half of European countries' weapons and equipment also use American weapons, and rely more heavily on the United States in terms of intelligence, logistics, etc.

For example, Europe faces great difficulties in organizing defense operations independently. "The United States has 17 advanced reconnaissance aircraft equipped with equipment to detect enemy radio, radar and communications, while the United Kingdom has only three similar aircraft. According to the International Institute of Strategic Studies, other European countries are currently equipped with smaller twin-engine reconnaissance aircraft, which have much worse performance."

As for the current situation of NATO's European member states, it is currently not able to fully fill the gap in combat power after the withdrawal of the US military, which is also the core reason for the anxiety of European countries. But ironically, European countries are also worried that if plans to strengthen Europe's role in NATO may only accelerate the U.S. withdrawal from Europe.

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