On May 15, "The US line price has increased. Everyone wants to ship to the United States within 90 days, but if the production cycle is long, it is difficult to arrive (on schedule), and it is very lingering."

Under the 90-day window period of China and the United States, foreign traders who received customer calls are beginning to urgently resume previously suspended orders. A reporter from Cailianshe recently visited many foreign trade companies and listed companies involved in exports to the United States and learned that this 90-day window period does have an impact on export orders.

However, in the face of the so-called "order grab carnival", many practitioners expressed concerns about this pulsed order. "It is still uncertain whether the 24% tax rate will be implemented in the future. Enterprises will still face the supply chain game, order risks, etc. caused by repeated tariff policies."

The panic over policy uncertainty is driving traders to consider coping strategies from a longer-term perspective.

Current status: inventory replenishment and stress response

"There are very busy these days," the head of a clothing company located in Minhang District, Shanghai told Cailianshe reporters that the possibility of orders left in hand is 100%, and new orders are still in communication with customers.

The boss of a leading fireworks company in Liuyang, Hunan told Cailianshe reporter, "Now there are US dealers who say they can resume shipping, but it will take about half a month to get the goods delivered from the port after the relevant preparations. It will take about half a month to ship from China to the United States. It will take two months to travel. These goods are mainly used to replenish inventory and prepare for Christmas season."

"After the tax rate is lowered, foreign trade companies and cross-border e-commerce companies have recovered orders to varying degrees, and many are going to the United States to prepare for the third quarter, fourth quarter and even next year's goods during the three-month window period. (Tariff lowering) will definitely be beneficial to the cross-border e-commerce industry in the short term, and there will also be some repairs to the short-term market confidence." Zhang Zhouping, an expert from the China E-commerce Expert Database, said in an interview with Cailianshe reporter.

Previously, a third-party agency based on the shipment data of China and Southeast Asia, judging that the inventory in the United States will usher in the first round of stock outage in May. According to new manufacturing and trade statistics for February 2025 released by the U.S. Census Bureau on April 16, inventory turnover of furniture, household goods, appliances and application stores can support 1.61 months, and inventory of clothing and clothing supplies stores can support 2.27 months.

Behind this short-term order wave is the stress response after the "sudden braking" of trade between the two countries: on the one hand, U.S. retailers are in a hurry in inventory, and on the other hand, Chinese companies are also facing the test of short-term capacity elasticity and the rise in freight prices.

A relevant person in charge of Small Commodity City (600415.SH) also told Cailianshe reporters today, "Everyone thinks that the trade war may continue, and there are many changes, so we must seize this 90-day window and store the cargo ships as soon as possible. Orders sent to the United States (Yiwu) have soared in the past two days, and shipping prices have also increased. The booking price of our routes to the United States and the West was about 1,300-1,400 (USD/TEU) before the tariffs were cancelled, and now it has risen to 1,700-1,800 (USD/TEU).

A freight forwarder told Cailianshe reporter that the price of 20-foot containers on Meishi has been sold for one day starting from the 12th.

It is worth noting that some companies maintained orders stability during tariff fluctuations.

Huali Group (300979.SZ)'s revenue in 2024 came from the United States. A person from the company's securities department told Cailianshe reporters that the current orders are normal and there are no significant fluctuations. "When the tariff fluctuations were fluctuated in the early stage, the company's orders were not cancelled or reduced, and there were no obvious changes in orders in recent days. Tariffs are borne by brand customers." The person also mentioned that if the tariffs rise, customers may negotiate prices with manufacturers, and the manufacturer's net profit margin is limited, and the pressure faced by manufacturers with different profitability is different. The company is already preparing and laying out risk prevention for exports to the United States.

A person in charge of a papermaking company also said that the layout of integrated sales and production has obvious advantages. "Our sales front end is in the United States and the supply chain back end is in China. (sales integration) will suffer a relatively small impact in the short term, and orders will not suddenly stop."

Change: "The risk in the US market is too great"

Amid the repeated fluctuations in tariff policies, some foreign traders bluntly stated that they no longer considered the US market.

A textile and leather foreign trader told Cailianshe reporter that the company's original plan to develop the US market in April has been stranded, and the US customers we have found are not considering taking orders for the time being. "In the past two days, some American customers want to place orders immediately and ship quickly, which is not a question of a surge in orders, and we still feel that the risk (in the current US market) is too great." In addition, the pressure on freight and production capacity is also a consideration factor.

According to public information, TEMU, an e-commerce platform that has adjusted its direct transportation policy in the United States, announced on May 15 that it will open a dedicated shipping line from China to Brazil, mainly transporting large goods such as furniture and home appliances. Brazilian consumers can view the shipment progress of goods in real time through short videos, and the logistics cost is expected to be reduced by 35%.

Inward circulation is also a solution for many companies to consider. A person in charge of an underwear foreign trade company told Cailianshe reporter, "We (orders) have not changed much in the past few days. In the early stage of tariff increase, consumers can only pay for the price. Our sales in the United States need to increase prices. In addition to the United States, there are alternative options in other regions. There is still a lot of room for growth in the Chinese market, and we will consider returning to (domestic market)."

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[Editor in charge: Song Jingcheng PF214]