Turkey's Daily Morning News website published an article on May 6 titled "How Ballistic Missiles Change Modern Warfare" and the author is Siber Diz, a researcher at the Turkish Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Studies. Compiled as follows:

  Against the backdrop of the Ukrainian War, global military thinking is undergoing a major change. Ballistic missiles, once the last warning method exclusive to powerful countries, are now frequently used in wars, political declarations and international conflicts. From Ukraine to the Middle East, the rise of long-range precision missiles not only made wars more intense, but also weakened the balance that nuclear weapons once helped maintain.

  Missile attacks become the norm

  The Ukrainian war clearly shows how the missile war is changing. With the help of the US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) and the British and French "Shadow of the Storm" missiles, Ukraine's strike capability has been raised to a new level. These weapons allow Ukrainian forces to penetrate deep into Russian-controlled areas to attack supply centers, airports and command locations.

  These are not theoretical threats, but real attacks, and they are changing Russia's combat plans and response methods. In response, Russia used its new Hazel missile, a medium-range ballistic missile with hypersonic performance that is said to be able to break through Western missile defense systems. This confrontation shows that missiles are no longer just theoretical tools, and they are now actively used to deliver signals and influence battlefield situations.

  What is most worrying is not only the power of these weapons, but also the meaning they represent. Both sides are using advanced missiles, blurring the line between conventional battlefield tools and weapons that declare larger and more serious threats.

  These missiles are now both offensive and defensive—they are used to strike targets and deter opponents from fighting back. This has a huge psychological impact: a city that once felt safe from being away from the battlefield is now in jeopardy, and important facilities that once could not be reached are now targeted.

  The Ukrainian War confirmed several key trends mentioned in reports such as the 2020 National Center for Aeronautics and Space Intelligence Threat Assessment—those trends that are shaping today’s war.

  First, missiles are often used, not only taken out in rare or extreme situations. Second, mobility and concealment become the key to survival. Third, many new missiles now have intelligent guidance systems, multiple warheads, complex flight paths and bait bombs, which increases the difficulty of the anti-missile system intercepting them.

  Most importantly, missile technology is spreading. Once exclusive to top military powers, many middle-class countries and even armed organizations now have the opportunity to obtain these weapons. This means more people have more missiles in their hands - making the world more unstable and dangerous.

  Ukraine is not only a battlefield, but also a preview of future wars. It shows what the upcoming conflict might look like: rapid deployment, remote strikes, highly accurate, and overlaying advanced technologies. Ukraine used ATACMS and Shadow of the Storm missiles to destroy Russia's logistics and military command systems, proving that conventional (non-nuclear) missiles can now achieve what was once possible only if they had absolute air supremacy or nuclear threat.

  This change is changing our perception of deterrence. It was believed in the past that only nuclear weapons could avoid major attacks or help demarcate the borders of war. But now, Russia's use of the Hazel missile (probably hypersonic and multi-warhead characteristics) is a clear sign that Moscow hopes to prove that it still has the upper hand in the escalation of the situation.

  These changes not only occur in Ukraine. In the Middle East, organizations such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi armed forces in Yemen have established large arsenals of advanced missile weapons. These organizations do not need nuclear weapons—their growing missile power is enough to threaten critical military and economic bases. What we are seeing in Ukraine is also happening in the Middle East: Conventional missile attacks with the aim of pressure and retaliation are becoming increasingly common. This has become a global trend.

  Threat the world peace situation

  The frequent use of ballistic missiles in numerous conflicts is having a serious impact on the world peace situation and international policies.

  First, it weakens the existing arms control system. Agreements such as the New Strategic Weapon Reduction Treaty do not involve new missiles, such as hypersonic missiles or advanced weapons like Hazel.

  Second, it fueled the regional arms race. After the outbreak of the Ukrainian War, countries such as Poland, Finland and Japan began to build or purchase more missile systems. In response to Russia's new missiles, the United States and its allies are now stepping up the development of laser weapons, early warning satellites and artificial intelligence monitoring systems.

  Third, it increases the risk of misjudgment and overreaction. Each missile attack can be seen as a major threat, and if the missile defense system is unable to intercept, the time and room for countries to resolve the problem through diplomatic means will be reduced.

  We are entering an era where the first step of war is no longer the deployment of ground forces or formal diplomatic warnings, but a missile coming from a distance. The Ukrainian war has shown that precision missiles can do what once could have been a bomber or even a nuclear weapon: cut off supply chains, destroy command centers, and change the course of the war.

  This new reality brings two major challenges. First, agencies around the world must rethink how to track, control and negotiate such weapons to avoid major crises. Second, military defense measures need to be improved—not only to be able to intercept large-scale missile attacks, but also to prevent targeted attacks aimed at paralyzing power, communications or command systems.

  The threat of nuclear destruction shaped the 20th century. The 21st century may be affected by another danger - the proliferation of precise, fast and easier to operate missile weapons. Unless the world responds through wise diplomacy and stronger cooperation, people may not be able to avoid the next war out of fear, but rather ignite the next war out of their own preemptive confidence. (Translated by Zhu Li)

[Editor in charge: Wang Jinzhi]