When Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th president of the United States, he claimed that a new "golden age" was coming.

Now that he has been on the stage for 100 days, is the "golden age" really coming? It depends on how to understand it. If you interpret it literally, investors who buy gold have indeed gained a lot.

But those who are full of longing for the "golden age" of the economy will not be so lucky. They bought US stocks and US dollar in large quantities, with disappointing returns. Those who bought US bonds did not gain any advantage, and even the safe-haven position of US bonds began to be questioned.

The strength of the market and the downward pressure of the economy have made him continue to make concessions, the most recent time was April 30.

Trump held a rally in Michigan, USA to commemorate his 100-day administration, and Michigan is a major center in the U.S. automobile manufacturing industry.

Hours before the event, Trump relaxed his car tariff plan and imported cars would be exempted from being subject to separate tariffs on aluminum and steel to avoid the cumulative effect of the imposition of overlapping tariffs.

Trump said the move was to give businesses time to move production back to the United States, while sending a terrible warning to automakers who may still be seeking import parts: "We gave them a little time before slaughtering them."

This sentence is for automakers and is also applicable to the capital market.

At the rally, he still hyped up his economic policies and tariff system, publicly criticizing the Federal Reserve, but did not directly call him. He said "we have a Fed person who is not doing well" and believes that he "knows interest rates better than him."

It can be seen that Trump is compromising under pressure, and the uncertainty of tariff policies still exists.

Can those who bet on Trump’s boosting markets remember that Trump had promised during his campaign that the new administration would further strengthen the U.S. economic and market dominance through massive tax cuts and relaxation of regulation.

On the 100 days after Trump took office, Luhui took everyone to review the performance of major markets.

U.S. stock market hits its biggest shock since the pandemic

The S&P 500 index has fallen about 8% since Trump took office, and is expected to be the worst performance since Ford's 100-day inauguration in 1974 (1974 was a turbulent period after Richard Nixon resigned).

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Few people on Wall Street foresee this situation. After a rise of more than 20% for two consecutive years, the market is full of hope for the new government to implement the growth agenda after it comes to power. But Trump imposed tariffs on almost all countries involved in the United States, and subsequently suspended some measures and opened exemptions for specific industries. This dazzling series of operations has caused severe market fluctuations.

In addition to the government's active repatriation of undocumented immigrants and large-scale reduction of federal employees, investors are deeply uneasy about the prospects, and the S&P 500's pullback speed has reached the seventh fastest since 1929.

The volatility of this round of market is completely different from any period in the past. It spreads rapidly regardless of industry or asset category, like wildfires, constantly being fueled by random speech and policy changes.

Bitcoin is more than 30% higher than before the election

Trump showed strong support for cryptocurrencies during his campaign, but Bitcoin did not maintain strong momentum since he came to power.

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At first, the market was enthusiastic, but according to data compiled by Bloomberg, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by more than 7% since Trump took office, and even a number of policies that benefit the industry during the period were introduced to reverse the decline.

Trump promised during his campaign to ensure that all remaining bitcoins are “made in the United States” and to establish a Bitcoin reserve. The former cryptocurrency skeptic has become a staunch supporter of the currency circle during the campaign, and several crypto asset organizations have also actively intervened in American politics through large amounts of political donations.

Trump has indeed fulfilled his commitment to support cryptocurrencies, the government has arranged crypto circle-friendly regulatory officials in key positions, and the Securities and Exchange Commission has also revoked several major cryptocurrency cases.

With tariff policies being introduced one after another, Bitcoin prices have been dragged down by the overall weak stock and bond markets, but prices are still more than 30% higher than the pre-election level.

The dollar index fell by about 9%

Since Trump returned to the White House, the dollar index has fallen by about 9%, which is expected to record the largest single-month decline since the United States abandoned the gold standard and allowed the dollar to float freely in the early 1970s.

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The first 100-day dollar since the new president came to power has usually been strong in the past few decades. Since Nixon started his second term in 1973 and Biden took office in 2021, the average increase in the US dollar in the first hundred days after the president took office was close to 0.9%.

Under Trump, the foreign exchange market, with an average daily trading volume of $7.5 trillion, fluctuated violently due to the capricious tariff policies and various posts he posted. All major currencies have recorded gains against the dollar since Trump took office, with Swedish Krona, Swiss Franc and the euro leading the gains.

Even the Mexican peso and Canadian dollars have risen against the dollar since January 20, possibly due to Trump's frequent delay in trade threats to both countries.

US Treasury: Global "risk-free assets" status shakes

The U.S. Treasury market, which is about $29 trillion, has experienced the most violent turmoil in decades over the past 100 days.

After Trump announced tariffs on almost all U.S. trading partners, investors' risk aversion sentiment rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 3.86% in early April.

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But as Wall Street's concerns about the possible U.S. recession spread, market preference for U.S. bonds fell rapidly, U.S. bonds suffered a sell-off, and the 10-year yield recorded its largest single-week gain since 2001, hitting 4.59%.

Trump's big criticism of the Federal Reserve Chairman has also exacerbated market turmoil, further shaking the position of US bonds as a global "risk-free asset" benchmark.

Credit Market: The worst round of selling since the epidemic

After Trump was elected, the US credit market initially flourished. In November last year, the risk premium of high-quality corporate bonds in the United States fell to its lowest level since 1998. But the good times did not last long. After Trump fully promoted the tariff plan, the bond market suffered the worst round of selling since the epidemic.

After the tariff announcement on April 2, the risk indicators of the US and European corporate bond markets soared rapidly within a few days, comparable to the regional banking crisis and Credit Suisse collapse in March 2023. The global junk bond risk premium recorded its biggest jump since March 2020.

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American companies were once blocked from the bond market for several consecutive days, with bond prices plummeting and transaction costs soaring. Bloomberg's index measuring the size of global adverse debt also recorded its biggest increase in at least 15 months.

This round of turmoil is so serious that the market speculates whether the Fed may intervene. However, the 90-day tariff suspension has temporarily relieved bondholders. From Wall Street banks to the world's largest retailers, borrowers have quickly raised funds while the window has not yet closed.

While many transactions in the junk bond and leveraged loan market have been put on hold and banks still hold about $5.7 billion of “slow-selling” loans, the market has shown signs of recovery in recent days. A syndicate successfully sold approximately $1.23 billion in loans related to the X Holdings Corp. acquisition.

Oil fell sharply

Oil prices fell sharply under the impact of the trade war, and the dimness of the economic outlook played an important role.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ has begun to increase production, appearing to be a fight against countries that have not complied with production quotas.

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Brent crude oil futures prices fell to $58.40 a barrel in early April and have now rebounded to about $65.

Before Trump took office, Brent crude was close to $81 a barrel. A weaker oil price will help Trump fulfill his campaign promise to lower inflation and lower fuel prices.

Gold hits record highs 28 consecutive times

Gold is one of the few beneficiaries in this turmoil, setting record highs for 28 consecutive times since Trump's victory on November 5 last year.

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Initially, as markets feared that gold might be included in Trump’s tariff list, U.S. gold futures prices soared and led to a rise in global gold prices, traders rushed to ship gold back to the United States before taxation.

This market came to an abrupt end after gold received tariff exemptions. However, as gold's traditional status as a safe-haven asset becomes increasingly prominent, gold prices rebounded rapidly.

Earlier this month, gold prices briefly broke above $3,500 per ounce, and despite the recent decline in gold prices, it is still one of the best performing major assets in the past five years.

[Editor in charge: Yuan Xindi PF182]